Below: current week's releases in BLUE; Data BETTER or WORSE than expected

Release Date

      Data Series

Previous Value or Change Expected Value or Change Actual Value or Change 12-Month Change Chart
4/29   CB Consumer Confidence - Apr 64.5 62.0 62.3 -44.0
4/30   GDP Change, apr - Q1 advance +0.6% +0.5% +0.6% +2.5%
4/30   GDP Implicit Price Deflator, apr +2.4% +3.0% +2.6% +2.2%
4/30   Employment Cost Index, NOT APR - Q1 +0.8% +0.8% +0.7% +3.3%
5/1   Wkly Init Unempl Claims - 4/26 345K 375K 380K 4-wk avg
363K
5/1   Personal Income - Mar +0.5% +0.4% +0.3% +4.0%
5/1   Personal Consumption Expend +0.1% +0.2% +0.4% +5.3%
5/1   PCE Core Deflator - Mar +0.1% +0.1% +0.2% +2.1%
5/1   ISM Manufacturing Index - Apr 48.6 48.0 48.6 -6.1
5/1   Construction Spending - Mar -0.3% -0.5% -1.1% -3.4%
5/1   Auto & Lt Truck Sales, saar - Apr 15.19M   14.4M -11.7%
5/2   Unemployment Rate - Apr 5.1% 5.2% 5.0% +0.5%
5/2   Non-Farm Payrolls - Apr -81K -75K -20K +462K
5/2   Average Hourly Earnings - Apr +0.3% +0.3% +0.1% +3.7%
5/2   Average Hrs Worked/Wk - Apr 33.8 33.7 33.7 -0.1
5/2   Total Factory Orders - Mar -1.3% +0.2% +1.4% +3.7%
5/2

Interest Rates, past 2-1/2 years

Treasury Yield Curve
5/5   ISM Non-Manufacturing Index - Apr 49.6 50.0 52.0 -4.0
5/7   Non-Farm Productiv, apr - Q1 prelim +1.9% +1.5% +2.2% +3.2%
5/7   Unit Labor Costs, apr - Q1 prelim +2.6%   +2.2% +0.2%
5/7   Consumer Credit - Mar +$5.2B +$6.0B +$15.3B +5.9%
5/8   Wkly Init Unempl Claims - 5/3 383K 375K 365K 4-wk avg
366K
5/9   Int'l Balance of Trade - Mar -$62.3B -$61.3B    
5/13   Retail Sales - Apr +0.2%      
5/13   Retail Sales excl Autos +0.1%      
5/14   Consumer Price Index, seas adj - Apr +0.3%      
5/14   CPI Core Rate, seas adj +0.2%      
5/15   Industrial Production Index - Apr +0.3%      
5/15   Capacity Utilization - Apr 80.5%      
5/16   UM Consumer Sent - May prelim 62.6      
5/16   Building Permits, saar - Apr 927K      
5/16   Housing Starts, saar - Apr 974K      
5/19   Leading Economic Indicators - Apr +0.1%      
5/20   Producer Price Index, seas adj - Apr +1.1%      
5/20   PPI Core Rate, seas adj +0.2%      
5/23   Existing Home Sales, saar - Apr 4.93M      
5/27   New Home Sales, saar - Apr 526K      
5/28   Durable Goods Orders - Apr -0.3%      
5/28   Dur Goods Orders, excl Transp +1.5%      
5/30   UM Consumer Sent - May final 62.6      

               saar = Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

The following list of economic data includes the 10 Leading Indicators used in calculating the Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators, plus one of four Coincident Indicators.  THE INDICATORS SHOWN ON THE CHARTS WITH THE PLOTTED DATA ARE NOT THOSE USED BY THE CONFERENCE BOARD IN CALCULATING THEIR LEADING OR COINCIDENT INDICES.  

Positive or negative readings below are determined using calculations of standard deviations or moving averages described on each chart.  These are calculations that I have decided to use after examining the indicators' performance with data covering at least the past 40 years.  This is in large measure curve fitting, though these indicators, by their very natures, tend to lead the economy as a whole. Also, note that release dates of several of these indicators lag by 2 or even 3 months.

   MONTHLY DATA CURRENTLY CHART
Leading Indicators
  Avg Hours Worked/Week in Manufacturing POSITIVE
  Avg of Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims NEGATIVE
  500 stocks (avg of S&P 500 closes for month) NEGATIVE
  Spread between 10-yr T-note and Fed Funds NEGATIVE
  U of Michigan Consumer Expectations NEGATIVE
  Vendor Performance - Slow Deliveries NEGATIVE
  Building Permits - New Private Housing NEGATIVE
  Factory Orders - Consumer Goods POSITIVE
  Factory Orders - Non-Defense Capital Goods POSITIVE
  M2 Money Supply - in constant 1996 $ POSITIVE

Martin Capital Advisors, LLP is not responsible for the accuracy of the data contained in any of these charts or indicators.  This information is provided for informational purposes only.


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